Predicted Crime Rates Application

The 2015 Predicted Crime Rates Application is based on Chapter 4 of the 2015 California Crime Report. In the report ILSSC researchers make a forecast of the expected violent and property crime rate for the cities in Southern California.

 

Further information

We used a statistical model that allows us to make forecasts of the level of violent crime and property crime in the Southern California cities next year (2017). Our statistical models take into account the level of crime in these cities over the last 15 years, and how it has been changing, to make forecasts of how much violent and property crime there will be in these cities next year. We assessed the quality of our model on crime data from 1970 to 2010, and found that the average correlation between our projection of the property crime rate and the actual property crime rate was .89 over these prior years. The average correlation of our violent crime projection with the actual level was .95 over these prior years. So our model appears to do a reasonable job projecting crime levels forward in time. Nonetheless, we caution the reader that the forecasts for individual cities have a confidence interval around the predicted value.

 

Explore Crime Concentrations in Southern California

Crime events are not random. They cluster in space. In other words, certain blocks, neighborhoods, and cities have higher crime rates than others. The goal of spatial analysis of crime is not just to display where crimes occur but to understand why crimes occur where they do- and more specifically, why crime rates cluster where they do. Criminologists who spatially analyze crime rates examine various characteristics of areas–most frequently factors such as poverty, racial/ethnic composition, and land use–in order to determine if these factors play a role in predicting where crime is more likely to happen. The fundamental question we seek to answer is: how do the social and physical characteristics of locations relate to the levels of crime in those areas?

2011 is the most recent year for which we have the most crime data for our range of cities in the Southern California region from the Southern California Crime Study. The 1/2 mile radius represent the common distance people will walk to various amenities. A 2-mile radius is useful since it gives a broader perspective (e.g., of where people drive) so the two can be compared. Currently, we do not have crime data for every single city in the Southern California region (although we have the majority of cities).The cities for which we have crime data are outlined in blue.