Crime Report

Southern California Crime Report for 2019

ILSSC researchers forecast a general decrease in both violent and property crime in the Southern California region in 2019. Using a forecast model based on 15 years of data, they project an average decrease in violent crime of 12% and property crime of 1% across cities in 2019. Their forecast model projects violent crime will decrease in 80% of cities in the region and property crime will decrease in 51% of cities in the region. Professor John Hipp notes that “although we are quite confident in the general results of our forecast model, we caution that there can be variations due to idiosyncratic factors within any given city.” Nonetheless, “this forecasted decrease simply continues a long trend that has been occurring in the U.S. and the region over the last 25 years,” observed Professor Charis Kubrin. The just released Southern California Regional Crime Report also provides information on how crime has changed over the last 10 years in cities across the Southern California region.

Click link to download: Crime Report for Southern California 2019 by ILSSC.

2019 Map Highlights

Violent Crime
Standardized 3 year average crime rate

Property Crime
Standardized 3 year average crime rate

Predicted Crime Rates Application

The 2019 Predicted Crime Rates Application is based on Chapter 4 of the 2019 Southern California Crime Report. In the report ILSSC researchers make a forecast of the expected violent and property crime rate for the cities in Southern California.
We used a statistical model that allows us to make forecasts of the level of violent crime and property crime in the Southern California cities next year (2019). Our statistical models take into account the level of crime in these cities over the last 15 years, and how it has been changing, to make forecasts of how much violent and property crime there will be in these cities next year. We assessed the quality of our model on crime data from 1970 to 2010, and found that the average correlation between our projection of the property crime rate and the actual property crime rate was .89 over these prior years. The average correlation of our violent crime projection with the actual level was .95 over these prior years. So our model appears to do a reasonable job projecting crime levels forward in time. Nonetheless, we caution the reader that the forecasts for individual cities have a confidence interval around the predicted value.

Previous Crime Reports