Southern California Regional Crime Report

An annual report of standardized crime rates to facilitate comparisons between cities within the Southern California region. A novel approach was used for calculating changes in crime over time, which adjusts for the inherent problem of comparing changes in crime rates across cities of different sizes.

Further information on the Southern California Regional Crime Report

In these annual reports, we use data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program to describe the level of crime in cities located in the Southern California region. In our report, we examine the six most serious types of crime: homicide; aggravated assault; robbery; burglary; motor vehicle theft; and larceny.

Throughout the report, we have standardized the crime rates to facilitate comparisons between cities within the Southern California region.

Additionally, the report has a section that adjusts the crime rates based on the demographic characteristics of the city.

Finally, the has a section that makes a forecast of the expected violent and property crime rate for the cities in Southern California.

Crime Report for Southern California 2017

Click link to download: Crime Report for Southern California 2017 by ILSSC.
Click link for webapp: Predicted Crime Rates by ILSSC.

2015 Map Highlights

Violent Crime
Standardized 3 year average crime rate
Property Crime
Standardized 3 year average crime rate

 

All Crime

Standardized 3 year average crime rate

5 year changes in crime rates

Violent Crime
5 year change in crime rate
Property Crime
5 year change in crime rate

All Crime

5 year change in crime rate

 

Predicted Crime Rates Application

The 2015 Predicted Crime Rates Application is based on Chapter 4 of the 2015 California Crime Report. In the report ILSSC researchers make a forecast of the expected violent and property crime rate for the cities in Southern California.

 

Further information

We used a statistical model that allows us to make forecasts of the level of violent crime and property crime in the Southern California cities next year (2017). Our statistical models take into account the level of crime in these cities over the last 15 years, and how it has been changing, to make forecasts of how much violent and property crime there will be in these cities next year. We assessed the quality of our model on crime data from 1970 to 2010, and found that the average correlation between our projection of the property crime rate and the actual property crime rate was .89 over these prior years. The average correlation of our violent crime projection with the actual level was .95 over these prior years. So our model appears to do a reasonable job projecting crime levels forward in time. Nonetheless, we caution the reader that the forecasts for individual cities have a confidence interval around the predicted value.

 

Crime Report for Southern California 2016

Click link to download: Crime Report for Southern California 2016 by ILSSC.

View the map highlights of the 2016 Report [Read more…]

Crime Report for Southern California 2013

Click link to download: Crime Report for Southern California 2013 by ILSSC.

View the map highlights of the 2013 Report [Read more…]