Southern California Crime Report

An annual report of standardized crime rates to facilitate comparisons between cities within the Southern California region. A novel approach was used for calculating changes in crime over time, which adjusts for the inherent problem of comparing changes in crime rates across cities of different sizes.

Further information on the Southern California Crime Report

 

In these annual reports, we use data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program to describe the level of crime in cities located in the Southern California region. In our report, we examine the six most serious types of crime: homicide; aggravated assault; robbery; burglary; motor vehicle theft; and larceny.

Throughout the report, we have standardized the crime rates to facilitate comparisons between cities within the Southern California region.

Additionally, the report has a section that adjusts the crime rates based on the demographic characteristics of the city.

Finally, the has a section that makes a forecast of the expected violent and property crime rate for the cities in Southern California.

 

Southern California Crime Report for 2018

ILSSC researchers forecast a general decrease in both violent and property crime in the Southern California region in 2018. Using a forecast model based on 15 years of data, they project an average decrease in violent crime of 17% and property crime of 6% across cities in 2018. Their forecast model projects violent crime will decrease in 87% of cities in the region and property crime will decrease in 71% of cities in the region. Professor John Hipp notes that “although we are quite confident in the general results of our forecast model, we caution that there can be variations due to idiosyncratic factors within any given city.” Nonetheless, “this forecasted decrease simply continues a long trend that has been occurring in the U.S. and the region over the last 25 years,” observed Professor Charis Kubrin. The just released Southern California Regional Crime Report also provides information on how crime has changed over the last 10 years in cities across the Southern California region.

Click link to download: Crime Report for Southern California 2018 by ILSSC.

2018 Map Highlights

Violent Crime
Standardized 3 year average crime rate
Property Crime
Standardized 3 year average crime rate

 

 

All Crime

Standardized 3 year average crime rate

 

 

Southern California Crime Report for 2017

Click link to download: Crime Report for Southern California 2017 by ILSSC.
Click link for webapp: Predicted Crime Rates by ILSSC.

2017 Map Highlights

Violent Crime
Standardized 3 year average crime rate
Property Crime
Standardized 3 year average crime rate

 

 

 

All Crime

Standardized 3 year average crime rate

5 year changes in crime rates

Violent Crime
5 year change in crime rate
Property Crime
5 year change in crime rate

All Crime

5 year change in crime rate

 

 

 

Predicted Crime Rates Application

The 2018 Predicted Crime Rates Application is based on Chapter 4 of the 2018 Southern California Crime Report. In the report ILSSC researchers make a forecast of the expected violent and property crime rate for the cities in Southern California.

 

 

 

 

Further information

We used a statistical model that allows us to make forecasts of the level of violent crime and property crime in the Southern California cities next year (2018). Our statistical models take into account the level of crime in these cities over the last 15 years, and how it has been changing, to make forecasts of how much violent and property crime there will be in these cities next year. We assessed the quality of our model on crime data from 1970 to 2010, and found that the average correlation between our projection of the property crime rate and the actual property crime rate was .89 over these prior years. The average correlation of our violent crime projection with the actual level was .95 over these prior years. So our model appears to do a reasonable job projecting crime levels forward in time. Nonetheless, we caution the reader that the forecasts for individual cities have a confidence interval around the predicted value.

 

 

 

 

Southern California Crime Report 2016

Click link to download: Southern California Crime Report 2016 by ILSSC.

View the map highlights of the 2016 Report [Read more…]