Criminologists often compare neighborhoods at a point in time to determine which ones have more crime. It is also the case that criminological theories are then tested based on these differences across neighborhoods. However, it is possible that how a neighborhood is changing may matter for how levels of crime change. In some cases, crime may increase regardless whether the neighborhood is improving or declining based on some measure. We show that there are indeed important effects for types of neighborhood change and how crime changes with decade over a decade in the Southern California region.
You can access the article by Dr. John R. Hipp and lab member Xiaoshuang Iris Luo in the journal Criminology entitled, “Improving or Declining: What are the Consequences for changes in local crime?”.
Abstract: “Whereas existing ecology of crime research frequently uses a cross-sectional design, an open question is whether theories underlying such studies will operate similarly in longitudinal research. Using latent trajectory models and longitudinal data from the Southern California region over a 10-year period (2000-2010), we explore this question and assess whether the changes in key measures of social disorganization theory are related to changes in violent or property crime through three possible relationships: 1) a monotonic relationship; 2) an asymmetric relationship; 3) one in which any change increases crime. We find evidence that measures can exhibit any of these three possible relationships, highlighting the importance of not assuming monotonic relationships. Most frequently observed are asymmetric relationships, which we posit are simultaneously capturing more than one theoretical process of neighborhood and crime. Specific findings include asymmetric relationships between concentrated disadvantage, residential instability, population, change in racial/ethnic minority composition and crime. We consider how this strategy opens a needed area of future research assessing how measures for other theories operate as neighborhoods change.”