While the net change in demographics of a neighborhood likely impacts how levels of crime change, this study explores whether it matters who leaves a neighborhood, and who is entering the neighborhood–that is, the flows of people in or out of a neighborhood. Using a novel demographic accounting technique that allows computing who is leaving or entering a neighborhood based on race/ethnicity, age, or length of residence, the study finds that there are some somewhat surprising results indicating which neighborhoods are more likely to experience crime increases. For example, neighborhoods in which young adults (aged 15 to 29) are relatively trapped experience larger crime increases, while the stability of middle-aged residents is beneficial for neighborhoods. The results are found using data on neighborhoods in Southern California across two decades (2000-10 and 2010-17).

You can access the article by lab alumnus Dr. John R. Hipp and lab alum Alyssa Chamberlain in the journal Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency entitled, “Who Leaves and Who Enters? Flow Measures of Neighborhood Change and Consequences for Neighborhood Crime.””. 

Criminologists often compare neighborhoods at a point in time to determine which ones have more crime. It is also the case that criminological theories are then tested based on these differences across neighborhoods. However, it is possible that how a neighborhood is changing may matter for how levels of crime change. In some cases, crime may increase regardless whether the neighborhood is improving or declining based on some measure. We show that there are indeed important effects for types of neighborhood change and how crime changes with decade over a decade in the Southern California region.

You can access the article by Dr. John R. Hipp and lab member Xiaoshuang Iris Luo in the journal Criminology entitled, “Improving or Declining: What are the Consequences for changes in local crime?”.